BURKG92.233 Targets for Attainment and Enrolments in Recent Reports Gerald Burke Centre for the Economics of Education & School of Graduate Studies, Faculty of Education, Monash University, Clayton 3168 Paper presented at the Economics of Education Symposium, Australian Association for Research in Education Annual Conference, Deakin University, Geelong, November 23-26 1992. Targets for Attainment and Enrolments in Recent Reports Introduction This paper considers the setting of targets for the level of qualifications held by the population. The basis for such targets e.g. student demand and the needs of the economy are discussed. The problems in converting attainment targets to enrolments are also considered, such as lack of data, the enrolment of persons seeking second or third qualifications, the enrolment of persons over the target age and the value of partially completed tertiary education. Recent Targets The Finn Report (1991) set targets for both participation and attainment but the emphasis was on attainment. This was in contrast to the focus on retention in the targets set for schools in the 1980s, e.g. the now surpassed target of 65 per cent retention to Year 12 by 1992. The Finn committee set a completion/participation target for 19 year olds: by the year 2001, 95 per cent of 19-year-olds should have completed Year 12, or an initial post-school qualification or be participating in formally recognised education or training. The target for 19 year olds was distilled from three more specific targets (Finn p.ix). These were: as a minimum, at least a Level 1 traineeship or participation in year 12 for all 18- year-olds by 1995;  at least level 2 traineeship or progress toward a higher level vocational or academic qualification for almost all 20 year olds by 2001; and at least vocational certificate (Level 3) or progress toward a vocational qualification above Level 3 or a diploma or degree for at least 50 per cent of 22-year-olds by 2001. At the AEC/MOVEET Meeting of 18 October 1991 the third target was agreed as in relation to higher levels of qualifications, by the year 2001 at least 60 per cent [my emphasis] of people by the age of twenty-two should have attained at least a vocational certificate (or other vocational qualification recognised by the NTB as Level 3) or progress towards a vocational qualification above Level 3 or a diploma or degree (NBEET 1992, p.7). This higher target for 22 year olds was endorsed by Carmichael (1992, p.2) but in that report the target for 19 year olds was reduced from 95 per cent to 90 per cent. The Finn targets for 19 year olds were a major input to the task of estimating total enrolments in the education system in Australia in 2001 and the associated estimates of expenditure. The Basis for Targets Targets are seen as providing a credible basis for strategic planning in education (Finn p.35). However to provide this credible basis it is important that the targets not be simply arbitrary but be based on some evidence on their relevance to the pursuit of the goals of economic efficiency, democracy, equity and human dignity. What arguments can be mounted for the Finn or Carmichael targets for the education sector. The main issues raised are: *student aspirations and unmet demand in TAFE and higher education, *attainment levels in countries we desire to emulate, * the projected labour needs of the economy, *current qualification levels in society. Student Demand The case for trying to meet student demand for subsidised education needs to be demonstrated. The expansion of education for example may not enhance the relative position of disadvantaged groups unless accompanied by measures to ensure their successful participation. Provision of places must be accompanied by suitable curricula and student assistance if less advantaged groups are to profit from the expansion. Efficiency grounds for meeting student demand may include the need for skilled workforce discussed below and also the desire in a democracy for a well educated community. However there are no simple ways for quantifying these factors. There are various measures of student aspirations and demand. Demand is conditional on the costs of post-compulsory education, and the forms of student assistance and alternative job prospects - which are extremely poor in the recession. Actual entrants to post-secondary courses plus estimated unmet demand could be used as an estimate of apparent demand for higher education and TAFE Miles Nicholls has suggested that some potential students may not have applied because - like discouraged job seekers - they believe no places are available. Entrants plus measured unmet demand may in part be a function of the supply.. The AVCC and TAFE systems produce estimates of unmet demand. The high estimate of unmet demand for university places has grown from 20900 in 1989, or 12 per cent of actual intakes, to 50000 in 1992 (see AVCC 1992) or over 20 per cent of total commencements. Less detailed estimates are available for TAFE though in 1990 it was estimated that 100000 persons were unable to enrol in the TAFE course of their choice (Deveson 1990 p.39). Ramsey (1991) reported unmet demand of 119000 students in 1990, 124000 in 1991 and a projected 153000 in 1992. These estimates of unmet demand include demand by persons who were at school the previous year but also include persons who left school in earlier years, a proportion of whom have already attempted tertiary education. Persons who completed secondary school in the previous year made up only one third of students actually commencing higher education courses in 1991 and only 43 per cent of undergraduate commencers. Unmet demand could be eliminated by raising user charges in education. A recent paper by Gannicott (1992) suggests that increased user charges could reduce unmet demand somewhat, but also provide funds for an increased provision of places and if necessary provide fee offsets to those current students who might drop out as a result of the increased charges. The introduction of HECS served the purpose of raising revenue for the expansion of higher education with, to date, apparently little effect on demand. It is not easy to draw a firm conclusion about the appropriate level of attainment for any age cohort on the basis of recent student demand for places. Student demand is a factor to be considered along with other indicators of society's needs. International comparisons NBEET (1992) has provided a brief review of international trends in attainment and participation. Cullen (1992) provided comparisons specifically related to targets for 25 to 34 year olds. He argued that if about 75 per cent of that age group attained post-school qualifications Australia would be placed towards the lower end of the upper quartile of OECD countries in the period 2001-2011. There are of course enormous difficulties in ensuring comparability. And it is not clear whether it is on the basis of economic needs or other grounds that we should try to match other countries patterns of attainment. Labour needs of the economy Recent ABS data on income and labour force status by educational attainment (e.g. ABS 6235.0 and 6546.0) show that persons holding post-school qualifications have higher incomes, lower unemployment and, particularly females, higher labour force participation. Persons with degrees in general have a more favourable experience than non-graduates The mean earned income in 1990 among persons aged 35-44 in full year full-time employment according to highest qualification was: $35400 for those with post school qualifications ($44400 for Degrees, $32730 for Certificate (non- trade/diploma, $30570 for Trade certificates); $27300 for those without qualifications ($31370 for persons who left school at 17, $24840 for those who left at 14 or 15) (Source: ABS 6546.0). See also Marginson (1992).. This broad pattern has, with some changes, been maintained over a long period, though the relative position of persons with degrees fell notably in the late 1970s. As far as any individual is concerned a qualification and particularly a higher education qualification has led to superior employment opportunity and earnings. That is not to say that the economic advantage lies in the content of the courses. If employers use qualifications to a substantial extent just to select the inherently able or motivated then the superior earnings of graduates are not necessarily an indication of the need of the economy for degrees rather than TAFE qualifications (see Maglen 1990). Some recent research suggests that the relatively better earnings of graduates may reflect their superior chances of being selected rather than a greatly expanding demand for graduate level skills. For, while persons with degrees have relatively superior earnings they achieve them in a context in which low paid work is expanding relative to middle income jobs. Gregory (1992 p.36) argued that for the period 1976 to 1990: Most job growth has been at low pay and there is no evidence that the economy has been generating demands for an increasing proportion of the population to be well educated and available for middle pay jobs. There must be disappointed expectations as those seeking further education are denied the rewards they might have expected if born a generation earlier. The DEET study Australia's Workforce in the Year 2001 (1991, p.72), with a different set of data and different research questions, found that the trend in employment by occupation has in fact been raising the average educational requirements of work in Australia. However for the 1990s the projected growth in the labour force with qualifications may outrun the growth in demand for labour - assuming constant qualification levels within occupations. Total employment was projected to grow by 16 per cent over the decade to 2001. Because of faster growth in occupations with above average levels of education, the demand for graduates was projected to grow by 27 per cent. The demand for persons with `technical' qualifications was projected to grow 18 per cent. However, the numbers with qualifications was projected in Workforce 2001 (p.70) to grow still faster: Specifically the number of persons with degrees will grow substantially in the 1990s (50 per cent) but will still make up a small proportion of the employed labour force (13 per cent). This compares with 10 per cent of the employed labour force at the start of the decade. Similarly the number of persons with technical qualifications will grow rapidly over the coming decade (27 per cent) and will represent 34 per cent of the workforce in 2001 (this compares with 31 per cent at the start of the decade) Labour Force Status by Educational Attainment (ABS 6235.0) shows about 35 per cent of the workforce to have trade or certificate or diploma levels in 1990; Workforce 2001's estimate, a projection based on 1986 census data, shows 31 per cent with technical qualifications. . The enrolment assumptions of Workforce 2001 were quite close in total to those in the Finn Report. If the implicit course completion rates in Workforce 2001 still hold, the broad conclusions also still hold Unpublished projected enrolments in 2001: Higher - 557000 Workforce 2001; 558000 Finn (excluding overseas) TAFE (based on Selected TAFE Statistics) - 1330000 Workforce 2001; 1271000 Finn. In Workforce 2001, therefore, the projected growth in the labour force with qualifications is greater than the projected growth in demand for labour (assuming constant qualification levels within occupations). This finding, along with those of Gregory (1992) relating to the decline in middle paid jobs, gives cause for concern about the size of the projected expansion in education. However, if there is effective award restructuring and technological change, more qualified labour will be sought within occupations for skill deepening - rather than better qualified workers taking the jobs of less qualified persons well able to carry out the tasks. This need for effective restructuring is also indicated by Carmichael (1992 p.3). He notes that Australia needs the adoption of new technology and high levels of workplace cooperation with efficient work organisation and positive industrial relations. Current levels of attainment In considering targets for say 2001 it is important to know where we are now. The ABS May survey for 1991 is one of the best sources of data. It provides data on the attainment and educational attendance of persons by age. As shown in Table 1 about 42 per cent of 22 year olds had attained a qualification and a further 14 per cent without qualifications were attending tertiary education. Some 51 per cent of 30 year olds had obtained a qualification and another 4 per cent without qualification were attending a tertiary institution. Cullen (1992) notes that teaching and nursing certificate and diploma courses are being converted to degree status. For comparison with future targets that might be set for 30 year olds, the current certificate-diploma holders in nursing and teaching (6 per cent) could be added to degrees (12 per cent) to give a total of 18 per cent. However while a total of 56 per cent of 22 year olds have qualifications or are engaged in tertiary study it cannot be assumed that all qualifications are at ASF level 3 or above. But data on a better assumption are not available Cullen (1992 p.25) in his consideration of a skills profile for Australia projected qualifications among the 25-34 age group at 74 per cent in 2001, compared with 51 per cent in 1991. Cullen assumes that about 14 of the 74 per cent hold qualifications at level 1 or 2; that is, Cullen's projection for 25-34 year olds with qualifications at level 3 or above is the same as the Carmichael targets for 22 year olds.. Setting of targets for ASF levels without a way of measuring their attainment by the population at least for a considerable time does throw some doubts on the usefulness of the targets in planning. Completion rates, second enrolment and older students Even if a target were to be set for 30 year olds it cannot be readily translated into a particular level or pattern of enrolments necessary to reach the target. Data on completion rates in TAFE and other training are not readily available. Analysis of ABS May survey data over several years may provide some clearer information on TAFE completion rates. This would allow the estimation of enrolment levels that could yield a particular level of attainment. A further complication is that the ABS data refer only to highest level of qualification whereas a considerable proportion of persons in TAFE and higher education are undertaking second or further courses, including postgraduate courses and higher degrees. Of persons aged 15 to 64 attending tertiary institutions in May 1991 41 per cent had already obtained a qualification - 38 per cent of TAFE students, 40 per cent of higher education students and 55 per cent of those in other education. Data shown in Table 1 indicates that of the 22 year olds attending a tertiary institution 41 per cent had already completed a qualification. Of 30 year olds attending tertiary education 66 per cent had already completed a qualification The high proportion of students who have already completed a qualification is confirmed by the ABS survey of How Workers Get Their Training. Of workers attending an educational institution in 1989 about 44 per cent had already completed a qualification.. Further analysis of the ABS data shows that of those attending tertiary education: 68 per cent are aged 30 or less - and 32 per cent are over 30; 43 of the 68 per cent aged 30 or less are seeking a first qualification and 25 have already obtained a qualification. This age distribution is confirmed in the administrative data collections. In TAFE about 40 per cent of students in 1991 were aged 30 or over and in higher education 26 per cent (DEET 1991a,b). Part completion It is argued, particularly in TAFE, that a significant number of students enrol with the major intention of completing only part of a course of study. This could increase as retraining in industry expands with award restructuring and workers combine in-plant training with training in educational institutions. Targets for completed qualifications would not capture this aspect of enrolment. Targets actually measured in ASF levels may capture it but this form of measurement seems some way in the future. Conclusion Three conclusions are drawn from this discussion. Targets cannot be based simply on current evidence on student demand or on evidence of labour force needs and must involve reasonable and optimistic judgement about the needs of the society and the economy. Data on completion rates are inadequate for the conversion of targets to enrolments (except perhaps for 15 to 19 year olds). The large numbers of students aged over 30, the large number of students seeking a second or third qualification and students seeking to complete only part of a course mean that a target for a first qualification by age 30 would provide an indication of only about half the total size of tertiary enrolments. References ABS, 1990 Survey of Income & Housing Costs and Amenities Australia, Persons with Earned Income, (6546.0) ABS, How Workers Get Their Training, (6278.0) ABS, Participation in Education Australia, (6272.0) ABS, Labour Force Status and Educational Attainment, Australia, (6235.0) ABS, Projections of the Populations of Australia States and Territories, 1989 to 2031 (3222.0). ABS, Transition from Education to Work, Australia, (6227.0). Australian Vice-Chancellors' Committee 1992, Australia's Universities in a Changing World, Canberra. Carmichael, L. (Chair) 1992, The Australian Vocational Certificate Scheme, ESFC, NBEET, Canberra. Cullen, R.B. 1992, Towards a Post-Secondary Skills Profile for Australia, VPSEC, May. DEET 1991, Australia's Workforce in the Year 2001, AGPS, Canberra. DEET 1991a, Selected TAFE Statistics. DEET 1991b, Selected Higher Education Statistics. DEET 1992, Course Completions, Higher Education Series Report No.13, Finn, B. (1991), Young People's Participation in Post-Compulsory Education and Training, Report of the Australian Education Council Review Committee, AGPS, Canberra. Gannicott, K. 1992, Fees and the Demand for University Places, Policy, Spring. Gregory, R. 1992, Aspects of Australian Labour Force Living Standards: the Disappointing Decades 1970-1990, The Copland Oration, 21st Conference of Economists, Melbourne, July 1991. Maglen, L. 1990, Challenging the Human Capital Orthodoxy, The Education, Productivity Link Reexamined, The Economic Record, 65, 190, 281-94. Marginson, S. 1992, The Declining Value of Educational Credentials in Australia, 21st Conference of Economists, University of Melbourne, July. NBEET 1992, Post-compulsory Education and Training: Balance of Growth, Discussion Paper, April. Ramsey, G. Chair 1991, Report of the AEC/MOVEET Working Party on Special Premiers Conference Issues, NSW TAFE Commission, November.