STAYING AT SCHOOL

Post-compulsory schooling in an area of high unemployment.žeЎЎPaper presented to the Australian AssociationЎfor Research in Education, Annual Conference,ЎDeakin University, Geelong, November 1992.ЎЎžgN. Barling and C. BarnettЎBallarat University CollegežeЎГ1.....ЏЏЏ....Џ....Џ.........Џ.........Џ.........Џ.........Џ........ЎžFЎThis paper draws upon a major study of employment in a large regional centџre of Victoria completed in 1991*.  It yielded data suggesting that youth unemployment was considerably greater than official Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS),  Commonwealth Employment Service (CES) and the Department of Social Security (DSS) figures.  The methodology and findings of this study will be discussed with particular emphasis on youth unemployment rates which will be compared with retention rates for the centres Secondary Schools.  Implications for social policy makers and educationalists 
џwill be explored along with suggestions for further research.ЎžeЎГ1..Џ...ЏЏ....Џ....Џ.........Џ.........Џ.........Џ.........Џ..............ЎThe Victorian regional city of Ballarat is a city in economic transition as established manufacturing industries experience the impact of restructuring and the general economic recession.  The ABS estimate of unemployment for the September quarter (1991) was 10.5% whilst the DSS data indicated a level of 13% unemployment for the Ballarat urban area.  One year later thџe figures had "blown out" to 11.6% ABS (September 1992) and DSS reported a level of unemployment of 17.4%.  However, human service agencies believed unemployment to be more widespread than government data suggested.ЎЎA study was undertaken in September 1991 to try to find a more accurate measure of Ballarat's unemployment problem since it was argued that Government figures were subject to the following criticisms and shortcomings:ЎЎ1)ABS national employment and unemployment statistics were only broken do!џwn to the Western part of Victoria which extends from Bacchus Marsh to Swan Hill.  On the occasions when ABS employment figures were given, only 110-130 households were surveyed from the City of Ballarat and surrounding Shires of Ballarat, Grenville, Bungaree, Buninyong and the Borough of Sebastopol;ЎЎ2)The ABS identified as employed any person who was,ЎЎЏ"aged 15 and over (and) who, during the referenced week worked for one hour or more for pay, worked for one hour or more without pay, employees who we
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юЫооюЪоомпоЫьЏ....Џ.........Џ.........Џ.........Џ.........Џ.........Џ....ЎAs such, the definition of employment clearly represented a very broad categorisation of employment and was likely to over-estimate the number of employed persons while at the same time minimising the number of unemployed.  These limitations suggested the ABS figures may have under-estimated the level of unemployment in Ballarat.  Compounding the problem of definition was the source of the data which incorporated urban Ballarat 
џinto a large rural area of Western Victoria.ЎЎ3)The Department of Employment, Education and Training (DEET) data from the Commonwealth Employment Service (CES) and the Department of Social Security (DSS) reported persons registered as unemployed and all those who receive unemployment benefits.  Four points of issue were identified with the data:ЎЎЏЏ[]not all unemployed people register as unemployed nor do they receive unemployment benefits;ЎЎЏЏ[]CES figures are calculated on one particular day in a mon
џth and do not include those who have become unemployed on that day;ЎЎЏЏ[]the time-lag for unemployment benefits to come through may exclude some people who are unemployed;ЎЎЏЏ[]the geographic base for CES unemployment figures included the City of Ballarat and twelve rural local government areas which may have distorted the level of unemployment in the Greater Ballarat City area. ЎЎWith DSS and ABS reporting data for different populations and using different criteria and methods, there remained no accur
џate way of comparing the two sets of data.ЎЎIn order to overcome these limitations this study defined a full-time employed person as one who "during the reference week worked more than three days".  Part-time employment was defined as, "more than one day but less than three days worked during the reference week".  Unemployed persons were considered to be "those who didn't have a job, during the reference week and considered themselves to be generally unemployed".  ЎЎThe other major limitation on GovernmenIџt data was its inadequate sampling procedures.  The present study overcame this problem by implementing a rigorous ABS methodology on a large sample of the Greater Ballarat City area, incorporating the residential zones of the city, but excluded outlying rural residential areas.ЎЎWith these limitations in mind, this study was designed to measure the level of youth unemployment, (suspected of being above that indicated by Government statistics), it was also hypothesized that such a study would yield valuabџмп
юЫооюЪоомпоЫьЏ....Џ.........Џ.........Џ.........Џ.........Џ.........Џ....ЎЎžgMETHODOLOGYžEЎЎA sampling procedure for the project was utilised which followed Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) methodology.  A sample of 30 Collector's Districts was randomly generated by the ABS from a population of 118 Collector's Districts in the Greater Ballarat City area.  This sample represented 601 dwellings from a population of 22,372 occupied dwellings (ABS 1986).ЎЎWithin each Collector's District, 20 occupiedџ households were surveyed using a bank of questions.  The starting point in each Collector's District was determined by a randomly selected point.  Interviewers then approached 20 occupied houses determined by a proportional interval spacing.ЎЎHouseholders were asked to indicate the employment status of each member of the household, aged more than 15 years, during the previous week.  Employment was categorised as being in either full or part-time paid work in that week.  Separate categories were provided џfor voluntary work, unpaid home duties, students and retirees.  Unemployment was defined as having no work, whether voluntary or paid part-time during that week.  Individuals engaged in home duties, who were seeking paid work were recorded as a separate category.  The number of days each person worked Ўduring the week was noted.ЎЎQuestionnaires were administered during the week of Monday 16th September to Friday 20th September (1991) during the early evening.ЎЎData was analysed using SPSSx.ЎЎЎžgRESULTSžEџЎЎThe survey located 1,879 people in 601 households.  In terms of gender, there was an equal distribution of males (49.6%) and females (50.3%).  In terms of age, 40.7% of the sample was described as over 35 years of age.  This was consistent with other data which showed that Ballarat has an aging population (ABS, Census 1986).ЎЎA characteristic of the sample was the residential stability of the residents.  Over half of the respondents (57%) indicated the household had lived at the current address for more
џ than 5 years, but 69.4% stated they had lived in Ballarat for more than 10 years.  In contrast, 3.7% of households had lived in Ballarat for less than 1 year.ЎЎTable 1 shows the employment status of the sample population.  Those people who identified themselves as `unpaid home duties seeking work' were incorporated into the category of unemployed.  This identified the number of unemployed within the sample as 154 persons.Ўџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџoyment level was 18.3%, with a calculated standard error of 1.3%, which meant we could assume with 95% confidence that the unemployed in Ballarat City was between 15.7% and 20.9% during September, 1991.ЎЎOne third of part-time workers were only employed for up to 2 days.  Under ABS procedures, these people would be identified as employed persons.  However, from the sample, 52.5% of those who were employed part-time were actively seeking full-time employment.ЎЎThese people were identified as underemployed.џмп
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юЩомЯмЯмЯмЫьЏ........Џ.......Џ.......Џ.......Џ........Џ........Џ........Џ...Џ....ЎЏUnemp.ЏPaidЏPaidЏVolЏUnpaidЏUnpaidЏStudentЏRetiredЎЏЏFull-ЏPart-ЏЏHomeЏHome ЏЎЏЏtimeЏtimeЏЏDutiesЏDutiesЎЏЏworkЏworkЏЏЏsee workЎЎЏ145Џ525Џ160Џ10Џ146Џ9Џ258Џ241ЎЎЏ(n=1494)ЎЎЎExpressed as a percentage of those who could be employed, including full-time and part-time workers, the unemplџ  This category included part-time employed persons wanting full-time employment, and full-time employed persons wanting more over-time.  In the calculations of underemployment only those who were employed part-time and wanted to move into full-time employment were considered to be under-utilised in terms of employment.  The under-utilisation of workers was calculated as 31.5% of the workforce.  With a calculated standard error of 1.6%, we can assume with 95% confidence that the under-utilisation rate in 
џGreater Ballarat City during September 1991 was between 34.8% and 28.12%.ЎЎЎžgYouth EmploymentžeЎЎWhen the data in Table 1 is broken down further and expressed in age groupings the level of youth employment and unemployment can be calculated.  The data represented in Table 2 can be used to calculate percentages of unemployed for each age group using the same means of calculating unemployment percentages as used earlier.ЎЎџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџyear olds who could be employed full time (excluding those at school) was 31.5%.  Again, with a standard error of 5.3%, we can be 95% confident that 15-19 year old unemployment in Greater Ballarat City is between 42.1% and 20.9%.ЎЎFor the youth of Greater Ballarat City the under-utilisation of 15-19 year olds is calculated the same way as previously mentioned.  That is, expressing the unemployed and those who are part-time employed and want to be full-time employed, as a percentage of those who could be eџmployed full-time, plus those who are content to be employed part-time.  Of the 20 part-time employed youth, 10 were seeking full-time employment.  Thus the figures for under-utilised youth workers who could be employed full-time becomes 51.5%.  With a standard error of 6.1% we can be 95% confident that the youth under-utilisation figure is between 63.7% and 39.3% for 15-19 year olds in Greater Ballarat City.ЎЎWhile these figures highlight the high proportion of youth unemployment in Greater Ballarat Cityџмп
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юЪоюЩомЯмЯамп[ьЏUnemployedЏFull- ЏPart-ЏStudentЏMissingЎЏЏЏtimeЏtimeЏЏDataЎЏЏЏEmployedЏEmployedЎЎ< 15Џ114Џ  2Џ  1ЏЏ109Џ  2Ў15-19Џ181Џ 24Џ 32Џ 20Џ103Џ  2Ў20-24Џ182Џ 37Џ 73Џ 25Џ 34Џ 13Ў25-34Џ249Џ 27Џ129Џ 33Ў35-54Џ464Џ 50Џ247Џ 68Ў54>Џ295Џ  5Џ 42Џ 14ЎMissing Ў   dataЏ   9Џ   -Џ   1Џ   -ЎЎTOTALSЏ1494Џ145Џ525Џ160ЎЎЎЎFor the 15-19 year olds the number of unemployed expressed as a percentage of those 15-19 џ it can also be argued that the figures represent a considerable under estimation of youth unemployment.  The figures do not include those students who are staying at school rather than leave and face almost certain unemployment. ЎЎThe preceding calculations yielded high standard errors which translated into a broad range of percentage points which we can be 95% confident of the youth unemployment.  The reason for this is the small number of subjects between the ages of 15-19 years who were unemployed and
џ in the workforce.  Thus, the youth unemployment figures need to be cautiously interpreted and the limitations of the sampling procedure acknowledged in the standard error calculations.Ўџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџмп
юЫоооооюЪооЫьЏ.............Џ..........Џ.........Џ..........Џ...Џ....ЎЎžgComparative DatažEЎЎWhen the data collected in this study are compared to ABS and CES data for the quarter it becomes apparent that the Government figures are indeed under-estimations.  Further, any comparison between data becomes a problem of definition, geographical collection, district compatibility, method of collecting the data, and method of calculating the level of unemployment.ЎЎЎžfмп
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юЩомЯмЯмЯыьЏЏPercentageЏЏЎSourceЏЏUnemployedЏЏAreaЏЏAgeЎЎЎABSЏЏ10.2%ЏЏNationallyЏAdultЎЎABSЏЏ10.5%ЏЏWestern VictoriaЏ   "ЎЎCESЏЏ13.36%ЏЏGreater BallaratЏ   "ЎЎDSSЏЏ13.67%ЏЏUrban Ballarat (U.B.)   "ЎЎThis studyЏЏ18.3%ЏUB Unemployed / Ft employedЏ   "ЎЎЏЏЏ+ Pt employed and unemployedЏ   "ЎЎЏ(a)Џ31.5%ЏUB Under-utilised ЏЏ   "ЎЎЎГ1.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.............Џ..........Џ.........Џ..........Џ...Џ....Ў(a)Under-utilisation was calculated џby summing the unemployed and the under-employed (part-time workers wanting more work) and expressed as a percentage of those who could be employed, i.e. full-time employed and part-time workers.ЎЎЎГ1...........Џ.....Џ.............Џ..........Џ.........Џ..........Џ...Џ....ЎWhat is clear from the data in Table 3 is that the ABS data is inadequate in its measurement of the Urban Ballarat area.  The CES data, even for the Ballarat Urban area was an under estimation when compared to the data presented in this 
џstudy.  Further, while the method of calculating the unemployment rate may vary, it is evident from this study that either means of calculating the unemployment rate yields a significantly larger rate than the Government figures.  When figures for youth employment are examined, a similar trend is evident although the range between ABS figures and this study's data is not as great.ЎЎџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ"џмп
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юЪоюЪоюЩомЯыьЏPercentageЏЏЎSourceЏUnemployedЏAgeЏЏAreaЏЏЎЎЎDSSЏ20.73%Џ15-20 yrsЏЏNationallyЏЎЎDSSЏ29.15%Џ15-20 yrsЏЏUrban Ballarat ЏЏЏЏЏ(U.B.)   ЎЎDSSЏ28.2%ЏЏ15-20 yrsЏЏBallarat RegionЏ   ЎЎThis Џ31%ЏЏ15-19 yrsЏЏU.B. Unemployed/ЎstudyЏЏЏЏЏFt employed + ЎЏЏЏЏЏPt employed + ЏЏЏЏЏunemployedЏ   ЎЎ     (a)Џ51%ЏЏ15-19 yrsЏЏUB Under-utilised ЎЎЎГ1..
џre on paid leave and were self employed."  (ABS Labour Force Australia April 1991 p 44)ЎžgЎЎ*ЏžeThis research was funded by grants from the Brotherhood of St. ЏLaurence and Ballarat University College.ЎЎŸ60Ў#ЎŸЎЎџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ#џ...Џ.....Џ.....Џ.............Џ..........Џ.........Џ..........Џ...Џ....Ў(a)Under-utilisation was calculated by summing the unemployed and the underemployed (part-time workers wanting more work) and expressed as a percentage of those who could be employed, i.e. full-time employed and part-time workers.ЎЎЎData from Table 4 indicates a similar trend of under-estimation by Government agencies, however, the range of disparity is considerably  less.  There are at least two reasons for the greater comparability $џof data: one, that most unemployed youth need to register for unemployment benefits to survive; two, the DSS figures are for 15-20 year olds and not the ABS 15-19 year age grouping used in this study.  This would tend to over-estimate the number of unemployed by DSS when compared to 15-19 year data.  Further, as contended earlier, these figures may also be under-estimations as those who would like to leave school and get a job cannot do so as there are fewer and intense competition for the few jobs availa%џble.  ЎЎWhile the data from this study, the ABS, CES and DSS incorporated in Table 4 have enabled the local picture to be appreciated, it is only when State and/or National figures are compared with Ballarat figures that the relative plight emerges.  Figure 1 demonstrates this point in relation to youth employment using DSS figures from 1988 to 1991.  What is of interest in these figures is that while the local rates of unemployment are extremely high, Ballarats' unemployed youth (using DSS figures) have 
џincreased from being 5% above the National average to being approximately 10% above the National average.ЎЎџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ'џмп
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ОюЪоюЪоюЪоюЪоОю№ЪаА™ЫьЎ]ЎЎžgSchool Retention RatesžeЎЎWhilst the level of youth unemployment reported in this study represented a crisis in terms of lost opportunities and skills, it was likely to be an under-estimation of the extent of the situation.  Retention (џrates in Victorian post-primary schools have shown large numbers of young Victorians staying at school to post-compulsory years since 1984.  ЎЎMany young people are enrolled at post-compulsory levels of schooling because they simply cannot find employment and prefer to remain at school rather than leave and lose the minimal benefits they are eligible for as students through Austudy.  Retention rates to year 12 in Ballarat government post-primary schools had increased from 23.5% in 1985 to 61% in 1991 (Min
џistry of Education, 1991).  It would seem that the high retention rates in Ballarat were masking the true level of youth unemployment in Ballarat which may be more accurately represented by the under-utilisation level which was found to be 51%, or at least between 31% and 42%.Ўџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ*џмп
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юЪоюЪоюЩомЯмооюЪоомпомпооюЪооЫьЏ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.........ЎЏЏЏЏЏSept 1989ЏЏSept 1991ЎЎUrban BallaratЎGovernment SecondaryЏЏ48.3%ЏЏЏ60.8%ЎSchoolsЎЎAll Secondary GovernmentЏ60.5%ЏЏЏ75.7%ЎSchools in VictoriaЎЎNational AverageЏЏЏ60.3%ЏЏЏ71.3%ЎЎЎ*  Source ABS and Victorian Department of School Education.ЎЎЎWhile the +џdata in Table 5 indicates that the age cohorts for 1989 and 1991 are demonstrating our increasing percentage of 15-19 year olds still at school, it may be that the 1994 and 1996 retention rates will reflect the true increase in retention influenced by the lack of employment opportunities.  Also evident from Table 5 is the lower level of retention in Ballarat than the State and National averages and the similar rate of increase compared to State and National averages.ЎЎЎГ1.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ....Џ.....Џ.....,џЏ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.........ЎžGDISCUSSIONžEЎЎThis paper has described a large study of employment in a major Victorian rural city.  Data have been presented from the study and contrasted with other data sources to focus on youth statuses.  The 1989 youth employment, schooling and unemployed figures were compared with 1991 data both Nationally and locally.  In general the picture that emerges is one where youth unemployment in 1991 is at least 10% above the National average while school retent-џion figures were approximately 10% below the National average.ЎЎMore specifically when Table 3 is examined it can be seen that ABS, DSS and CES figures are considerable under-estimations of the situation in Urban Ballarat.  This present study has yielded more accurate estimations since it has been able to:-ЎЎ1)more realistically define employment and unemployment;ЎЎ2)take a large sample of 601 households in randomly allocated collectors districts in Urban Ballarat, compared to ABS sampling of only 120 h
џouseholds in Ballarat;ЎЎ3)through ABS door stop interview methodology this study has accessed a better estimate of unemployed during the target week since it was able to include those who were unemployed and not on DSS benefits and unemployed housewives who were looking for work.Ўџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ/џмп
юЫоооюЪооЫьЏ.....Џ....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.........ЎЎWhile figures claim to give an objective and comparative basis to discuss issues and initiate policy they do not explain the human cost and misery associated with such high levels of unemployment.  The ABS and DSS figures do not include the 16 year old who works 10-20 hours at McDonalds and who is counted as full-time employed.  Within this study those youths who were working part-time and wished to work full-time were counted0џ as under-employed and thus incorporated in the under-utilisation figures.        ЎЎThese figures better express the human cost of high unemployment as they include people who are keen to work, who are working, yet they are being under-utilised and would like to work full-time.  Even so, these figures of under-utilisation while more graphically expressing the problems, do not Ўexpress the plight of the unemployed as well as case study material.ЎЎWhile the preceding data from this study and Government sour1џces can individually be used to interpret the situation in Ballarat, it is virtually impossible to go beyond a comparison with similarly derived figures for the State and Nation.  For example DSS figures cannot be compared with ABS figures because of the different methods of collection, different definitions and different geographical areas of collection.  Thus any comparison between data from different sources needs to be closely examined for its basic assumptions and means of collection.  Acknowledging 2џthis problem, what can be done is the analysis of trends and rates of growth in individual measures which can then be argued to be indicative of trends and changes which can be integrated into a broader picture.ЎЎIn relation to the data presented in this study and the comparative data from Government sources, a composite picture of the status of 15-19 year old youth in Urban Ballarat can be constructed.  What is evident from the comparison between this study's data and Government figures is that the Urban3џ Ballarat youth were a good 10% higher in their unemployment compared to National figures.  Further, this study's data would be a more reliable estimate than other sources, particularly the DSS figures which are for 15-20 year olds.  Even if the DSS figures are taken as accurately representing the number of youth unemployed the movement to a consistent 10% higher unemployment rate among youth in Ballarat than National data is evident in Figure 1.ЎЎThus far, for September 1991 it has been established that 4џfor Ballarat, youth unemployment was approximately 31% of the youth who were not at school or 10% above the National average DSS figures.  What was the status of the remainder of Ballarat's youth?  By examining the retention rate data in Table 5 it can be seen that of the 1989 and 1991 cohorts that started secondary school in 1983 and 1985 approximately 13% more students were completing secondary school.  This figure was in the same order and rate of increase as State and National averages.  However this 
џfigure is not a percentage of the 15-19 year olds who are still at school.  It is a cohort figure and further, it doesn't include a measure of 18019 year olds who are studying at TAFE or University.  From this study the data revealed 57% of the 15-19 year olds sampled were students.  This figure suggests that a џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ6џмп
юЫоооюЪооЫьЏ.....Џ....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.........Ўretention rate of 60% may be close to the percentage of 15-19 year olds still at school, TAFE or University.  However, when the figures for Tertiary enrolment are examined it can be seen that the State average of 9% of 15-19 year olds in higher education in 1990 (The Finn Report 1991), would mean that at least 9% of the Region's students are absorbed into study at University.  Thus, 60% is probably an under-estimate and it is m7џore likely to be closer to 70% of the 15-19 year olds who are studying.  This leaves 30% who are either unemployed or employed.  Since we have DSS figures of 979 unemployed in urban Ballarat aged between 15-20 years, we may assume that approximately 800-900 would be aged between 15-19 years, or an average of 22.5%. ЎЎWith the above estimates and a youth population estimated to be 3700 then raw data calculations suggest that those 15-19 year olds who are employed are between 6% and 9% with a mid-point of 78џ.5% of the 15-19 year old population in Urban Ballarat.  While this figure is relatively small it reflects both the need for industry to take on a better educated employee as well as the small number of jobs available for 15-19 year olds.  However it is only when contrasted to 1989 estimates does a truly comparative picture emerge.ЎЎIn 1989 the total Urban Ballarat population of 15-19 year olds could be estimated at approximately 3600, since the total populations has a 0.15% annual growth rate.  Applying 9џthe same logic and estimations as the 1991 calculations above it can be estimated that the 48.3% retention rate could be extended to 60% to include 19 year olds who are studying.  With 60% studying that leaves 40% not at school, now since we know that 522 were unemployed in the urban Ballarat area between the ages of 15-20 years we may assume that between 400-500 or an average of 12.5% were 15-19 year olds.  Similarly we can now calculate the number of employed 15-19 year olds in Urban Ballarat as approxi:џmately 27.5% of this age group.ЎЎIn summary, Table 6 presents the data argued in the previous paragraphs.  It should be stressed however that except where acknowledged the figures have been estimated and should be used only with recognition of the basic assumptions that apply to each set of figures.ЎЎЎžfмп
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‘юЋьџЎЎUrban BallaratЎ15-19 year oldЏЏ3600ЏЏЏЏЏ3700ЎpopulationЎЎIn EducationЏЏЏ  60%ЏЏЏЏЏ  
џ70%ЎUnemployedЏЏЏ ЏЏЏЏЏЎUrban BallaratЏЏ  12.5%ЏЏЏ    Џ  22.5%Ў   15-20 yearsЎEmployedЏЏЏ 27.5%ЏЏЏЏ  7.5%ЎЎџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ<џмп
юЫоооюЪооЫьЏ.....Џ....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.........ЎЎFrom Table 6 and the preceding discussion, several conclusions can be drawn.  First, comparing the 1989 and 1991 estimations we find a relatively stable population which has a 10% increase in the number of 15-19 year olds who are "in education" either secondary school, TAFE or University.  Second, unemployment has increased by 10% of the 15-19 year old Urban Ballarat population from 1989-1991.  Third, these increases have been=џ accompanied by a 20% decrease in the number of employed 15-19 year olds in Urban Ballarat.  While these changes can be expressed in percentages, it should be realised that they are indicative of trends and that the changes are based on estimations.  However, the changes, while estimates do logically fit.  That is to say, a 20% decrease in the number of jobs has been accompanied by a 10% increase in the number of unemployed and a 10% increase in retention rates at school and those "in education".  However>џ, what the trends don't allow us to conclude is causation.  A closer examination of each trend leads to the realization that there are a number of possible reasons which deserve further research.ЎЎIn relation to the increase in retention rates during secondary schooling, a future research project of the authors will be to investigate why retention rates in Ballarat have increased and to seek answers to the research questions, "Why are you staying at school?  What are your career/study aspirations?  What a?џre your likes and dislikes of the VCE years 11 and 12?"  Answers to these questions will enable policy makers and educationalists to better respond to student needs as well as teachers and employer needs.  Besides providing the employer with a better educated worker the retention of more students at secondary school may provide a pressure on teaching resources as well as pressures of having to cope with more students who don't really want to be there.  The students who are remaining at school because, "it@џ's better than being unemployed" could become disciplinary problems and distract those who aspire to higher education.  An investigation into these areas of concern may provide insights to reduce the tension in schools.ЎЎThe increase in youth unemployment is a particularly serious problem for society in that it is a waste of human potential and ability.  Some youths of the current generation may experience their entire adult life as unemployed persons.  While some people can optimize and accept such situaAџtions, others feel worthless and become a burden on the rest of society.  Social welfare agencies such as the Brotherhood of St. Laurence with a strong commitment to the facilitating training and employment opportunities for youth will be increasingly called upon to provide more services to those who are in need.  Of course the level of youth unemployment don't occur in a vacuum from the current economic and political reality, however in Victoria a special effort to cater for the young unemployed would se
џem to be justified, especially in rural Victoria.  More research into youth unemployment needs to be conducted to ascertain why youths leave school to become unemployed.  What is it about school that facilitates their early departure?  How can employers find rewarding work for the relatively uneducated and unskilled?ЎџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџCџмп
юЫоооюЪооЫьЏ.....Џ....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.....Џ.........ЎЎPerhaps the driving force for the aforementioned increase in unemployment and retention rates is the changing nature of employment and employer needs as we approach the twenty-first century.  Trends toward fewer jobs for unskilled labourers and demands for a more flexible and educated workforce may be some of the reasons that more young people are staying at school longer and also why more wish to engage in Tertiary studies.  DџHowever, not all youths are motivated or capable of undertaking further study.  It is for these people that youth employment opportunities need to be created, probably through small business expansion where on-the-job skills can be developed and career paths made more vocationally specific.  Governments need to take the initiative to stimulate youth employment opportunities or risk their increasing reliance on welfare.ЎЎIn conclusion, this paper has drawn from a large study of employment in a large VictorEџian regional city.  Data from this study suggested that Government statistics were a considerable under-estimation of the numbers of unemployed, particularly young unemployed persons.  Data from this study was then integrated with Government figures to present a 1989-1991 comparison of youth statuses.  Within this two year period it was argued that unemployment and "in education" statuses had increased by 10% while employment opportunities for 15-19 year olds in Urban Ballarat had decreased by 20%.  Furth
џer research into each area of youth activity was suggested in order to facilitate policy makers, educationalists, employers and the young in order to cater for future trends.ЎЎџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџGџмп
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ў’ю~WмюЯос  vol.8 no 2, June 30 1991.ЎЎBallarat Regional Board for Planning and Development.  мп
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ў’ю~WмюЯос  vol.8 no 4, March 1992ЎЎBarling, N. & Barnett, C. (1992)  мп
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№W§рнЗ№к1зАV2nыьЎЏ`Summary of Postcompulsory Education - Central Highlands WimmeraЎЏRegion' Ballarat 1985.ЎЎЎžgNewspapersžeЎЎThe Age.  The Ballarat News.  The Courier.  The Sunday Age.ЎЎџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ
џle data about youth "in education".  Since 1988 an increase in retention rates has been characteristic of Government post-primary schools, this study would provide local data to compare with National data in order to discern whether the Urban Ballarat population had any unique characteristics.Ўџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ